No doubt that Kentucky Derby is the most difficult race of the year to handicap. Numerous factors are coming into play on the day of the Kentucky Derby which were not there day before. Young horses are often full of surprises.
And how can they not be. They will be performing in front of howling crowd of more than one hundred thousand people and then there are also other horses, 20 of them racing side by side. Many will break under the stress and run poorly. Or like it also happens almost every year, some won’t even run at all. It is almost impossible to predict what is going to happen on the Kentucky Derby Day.
“It often happens that best horse does not always win the Kentucky Derby,” said Hall of Fame jockey Mike Smith to USA Today. “Actually, it very rarely does!”
Smith is likely on the best horse of the 2018, a real beast named Justify. Justify has participated in three races so far and has won them all. Yes, Justify is a definite favourite, but it has to prove on Saturday if it has potential to be a real superstar.
And then there is also a handicapping perspective – Justify is by no means bulletproof. Because it debuted on a racetrack only three months ago. We all agree that those wins were all impressive, but on the other hand they were all ran versus smaller California fields where it just went ahead in the very beginning and ran unchallenged til the end. This, obviously, will never happen on Saturday. History tells us that betting on Justify at 5/2 won’t be a great bet, even though it may be the greatest on one day. Actually 5/2 will be quite terrible bet, let’s be honest here.
And many experienced bettors agree. There are better bets available at high limit online sports betting sites for high rollers. Like Mendelssohn – regally-bred European horse who just won UAE Derby and then there is also Florida Derby winner Audible. And of course Magnum Moon, who won Arkansas Derby is so far 4 for 4 in his short career.
But let’s not forget Good Magic, one of the most experienced horses on the track. Good Magic has been lately overlooked because he was 3rd in the Fountain of Youth Stakes couple of months ago and not showing lots of power and energy. Although Good Magic redeemed himself later winning in the Blue Grass.
So… what’s it going to be this year?